From a small northwestern observatory…

Finance and economics generally focused on real estate

Posts Tagged ‘Real Estate Counseling Group of America

PWC’s Quarterly CRE Review

leave a comment »

PwC’s quarterly commercial real estate review just hit my desk.  I have a particular affinity for this survey-based review — it was founded about 30 years ago by Peter Korpacz, MAI, an alumni of the Real Estate Counseling Group of America and an acquaintance of mine.  PwC took it over a few years ago, and have done wonderfully with it.

The entire report, at 106 pages, is far too robust for a simple summary.  However, a key metric is the review of capitalization rate changes by property type (e.g. — warehouse, apartments) and offices by region (e.g. — Manhattan, DC, San Francisco).  A cap rate, of course, is the ratio of a property’s net operating income to its sales price.  Declining cap rates on a broad front can indicate the onset of a recession, but differential cap rate changes (rising in one market, declining in another) may suggest differing sector views by real estate investors.  By property type, this is what we appear to have today.

For example, warehouse cap rates currently average 5.27% nationally, but this represents a decline by 10 basis points just in the 2nd quarter.  Generally, this points to a favorable view of warehouses by investors — they’re willing to pay a bit more for each dollar of prospective income.  Conversely, offices in the central business district saw increases of 13 basis points, suggesting a softening of CBD office prospects.

Across various regions of the country, offices in general (both CBD and others) showed either no change or declines in cap rates, with the biggest cap rate declines occurring in Phoenix and Philadelphia.  Only Denver and Atlanta showed increases in office cap rates.

Overall, investors expect cap rates to hold steady or increase over the coming six months.  Indeed, only among CBD offices and power centers was there any sentiment for cap rate decreases.  100% of investors expect net lease properties to show cap rate increases in the coming 6 months, which portends value softening in that property sector.

We’ve used the nasty “R” word (ahem… “recession”) on occasion here at Greenfield, and PwC seems to agree with us.  They expect that the office sector will peak by the end of this year, and a large number of metro areas are expected to move into contraction during 2018 and 2019.  They expect 61% of cities in their survey to show retail property recession by the end of this year, but with some limited exceptions (Austin and Charleston).

Industrial properties, on the other hand, should fare well, with only Houston headed for recession during 2017.  They also expect 15 other markets, including Los Angeles and Atlanta, to face industrial recession by the end of this year.  Further, a large supply of industrial property is expected to come to market during the near term, suggesting an industrial over-supply for the next four years.

One bright spot is multi-family, which continues to “benefit from the unaffordability of single family homes”.  Two markets need to play catch-up (Charlotte and Denver) but other markets should fare well, with 40% of markets headed for expansion.

Korpacz Survey

with one comment

The quarterly PriceWaterhouse Cooper’s real estate survey is now known as the PWC Real Estate Investor Survey.  However, those of us who have used and trusted it for so many years will always think of it as the Korpacz Survey, named after its founder Peter Korpacz, MAI, and former active member of the Real Estate Counseling Group of America.  The latest issue (4th Quarter, 2012) just hit my desk, and as always, it’s a great snap-shot into the current thinking of real estate investors in the U.S.

The headline pretty much says it all, “Buying beyond core remains tricky.”  The principle problem is the protracted recovery.  Investors are still attracted to core assets for the yield, but are skittish on anything not bought for income.  Particularly favored are community shopping centers with grocery anchors, apartments, offices in tech centers, and port-oriented industrial.

However, a growing number of investors are looking at secondary markets, but expecting returns that are a “multiple of core deals.”  Part of the challenge here is bank underwriting standards, which can really hinge on the finer points of a deal.

Among investment sub-sectors, cap rates have declined across the board this past quarter, with the exception of warehouse (+4) and flex/R&D (+3).  The most notable decline was in the net lease sub-sector (-54 points).  Apartments continue to “lead” with the lowest overall cap rate of 5.8% (down another 18 basis points from the previous survey).

Not withstanding my comments about the the survey’s founder, Susan Smith, the Director of Real Estate Business Advisory Services at PwC, does a great job putting this survey together every quarter.  The quality and quantity of information continues to grow, and its usefulness to real estate decision makers cannot be over-stressed.  For more information, or to subscribe to the survey, visit pwc.com.

Written by johnkilpatrick

January 23, 2012 at 3:43 pm