From a small northwestern observatory…

Finance and economics generally focused on real estate

Posts Tagged ‘Boeing

WordPress v. Facebook

leave a comment »

Loyal readers will note that I’m frequently on Facebook and less frequently here.  You may have also noted (or not….) the very different tone of my two sets of writings.  My pure FB posts are generally either my (fairly strident) political views or mental meanderings about family, travel, restaurants, and bars.  In other words, normal stuff.  My blog posts lean to business, finance, and the economy, with a bent toward real estate.  By construct, the “voice” on this blog is different than the “voice” on FB.

Here’s where life gets interesting.  I had the honor last week to speak to a small audience at a luncheon at Seattle’s historic Rainier Club about the economy.  It’s quite impossible now-a-days to separate “economy” from “politics”, much as I might like to.  Calvin Coolidge, I believe, said that the “business of America is business”, and the current government in D.C. has adopted that mantra.  Sadly, the current government in D.C. appears to know quite little about mainstream business.  they know a bit about a few things, and almost nothing about most things.  That said, they’ve sold a bill-of-goods to many mainstream business folks.  I saw a truck heading into Seattle today with InfoWars and “Arrest Hillary” bumper stickers.  The driver was a bearded young man who appeared to be a hard working fellow.  He’s been sold on the notion that the government in D.C. is on his side now, and they’re going to make everything a lot better.  I’m waiting to see that.  I haven’t seen anything yet out of D.C. that suggests this government is representing anyone other than Russian bankers and the Koch brothers.

At my Rainier Club talk, a questioner — clearly a Trump supporter — commented that the benefit of the new administration was that they were dismantling onerous regulations which affect small business.  I reminded the questioner that I’m Chair of the Board of a business headquartered in Seattle, and that nearly all of our regulations are imposed by the City of Seattle and the State of Washington.  I further reminded him that these regulations make Seattle the sort of place where creative people wanted to live, and since my bread and butter is hiring creative people, I’m happy to put up with these regulations in order to hire creative folks.  I noted that Amazon, Starbucks, Nordstrom, Weyerhaeuser, Expeditors International, Expedia, Alaska Air, Microsoft, Boeing, Costco, the Russell Group, Symetra, F5 Networks, Paccar (who make Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks) and a host of other global companies were also willing to put up with these Washington State regulations in order to be able to tap into the brain trust that wants to live here.  Intriguingly, the most “regulated” cities and states in the nation tend to be homes to the most forward-thinking and growing businesses.  Indeed, New York and California have over 20% of the Fortune 500 headquarters, and the states which are generally the least regulated have no Fortune 500 or even Fortune 1000 companies (Montana, Maine, South Dakota, Wyoming, West Virginia, New Mexico, and Alaska).  You go figure….

Conerly’s Businomics Newsletter

leave a comment »

I’ve mentioned before that one of my favorite economic writers, particularly for the Pacific Northwest, is Dr. Bill Conerly out of Lake Oswego, Oregon.  Even though Greenfield’s practice is national, we have to maintain a bit of a Northwest focus to our work.  Dr. Conerly helps us with the underlying economics driving the economy of this salmon habitat in which I live.

Dr. Conerly’s “charts” are wonderfully informal and informative at the same time.  In the ‘old days’ he would simply hand-write his thoughts on the charts then fax them to his subscribers (remember “faxing”?).  Today, of course, it’s all digitized and stored on his web site, with an emailed link.  Nonetheless, the succinct hand-written notes are still there, and the brevity is welcomed.  (I could learn from that.)

Rather than reproduce the charts here, I’ll simply give you a link (here) and you can go view them yourself.  If you’d like to contact Dr. Conerly — he’s a great speaker and consultant on economic issues — then the e-mail address is bill@conerlyconsulting.com.  A quick synopsis may whet your appetite:

  • Business equipment orders are still not back to the pre-2008 peak.
  • Consumer sentiment is up, but not back to 2007 levels
  • A January, 2012, Wall Street Journal survey pegged the risk of recession at 19%
  • Private non-residential construction has “turned the corner”, but is still significantly lower than 2007-2009 levels.
  • Unemployment:  great headlines, but we’re a very long way from feeling good.
  • Mortgage rates are at all-time lows, but only if you have great credit.
  • Stock market:  lots of up-side if Europe manages to muddle through
  • Oregon and Washington bankruptcy filings on the way down, but still over double the 2007 rates
  • Boeing orders may be tapering off, but still significantly exceed deliveries — no need to cut output
  • Wheat prices (an important economic component in our area) are downturning, due to the global slowdown.

Well, folks, that’s about it — great reading from a great analyst.

 

Written by johnkilpatrick

February 13, 2012 at 9:51 am