From a small northwestern observatory…

I’ve mentioned before that one of my favorite economic writers, particularly for the Pacific Northwest, is Dr. Bill Conerly out of Lake Oswego, Oregon.  Even though Greenfield’s practice is national, we have to maintain a bit of a Northwest focus to our work.  Dr. Conerly helps us with the underlying economics driving the economy of this salmon habitat in which I live.

Dr. Conerly’s “charts” are wonderfully informal and informative at the same time.  In the ‘old days’ he would simply hand-write his thoughts on the charts then fax them to his subscribers (remember “faxing”?).  Today, of course, it’s all digitized and stored on his web site, with an emailed link.  Nonetheless, the succinct hand-written notes are still there, and the brevity is welcomed.  (I could learn from that.)

Rather than reproduce the charts here, I’ll simply give you a link (here) and you can go view them yourself.  If you’d like to contact Dr. Conerly — he’s a great speaker and consultant on economic issues — then the e-mail address is bill@conerlyconsulting.com.  A quick synopsis may whet your appetite:

• Business equipment orders are still not back to the pre-2008 peak.
• Consumer sentiment is up, but not back to 2007 levels
• A January, 2012, Wall Street Journal survey pegged the risk of recession at 19%
• Private non-residential construction has “turned the corner”, but is still significantly lower than 2007-2009 levels.
• Unemployment:  great headlines, but we’re a very long way from feeling good.
• Mortgage rates are at all-time lows, but only if you have great credit.
• Stock market:  lots of up-side if Europe manages to muddle through
• Oregon and Washington bankruptcy filings on the way down, but still over double the 2007 rates
• Boeing orders may be tapering off, but still significantly exceed deliveries — no need to cut output
• Wheat prices (an important economic component in our area) are downturning, due to the global slowdown.

Well, folks, that’s about it — great reading from a great analyst.