Archive for the ‘Real Estate’ Category
Gulf Oil Spill Conference
Congrats to the folks at HB Litigation Conferences for a superbly organized and run conference in Atlanta this past week. For two days, a veritable who’s who of top litigators outlined the issues, the scope of the problem, and the direction all of this is headed.
I had the pleasure of going on the first day, right after Michael Rozen (law partner to Ken Feinberg, who will administer the $20 Billion fund) and right before Robert Kennedy, the famed environmental attorney. Rozen presented an indepth Q&A on what is known today about the Fund, which frankly isn’t all that much. Big questions loom on whether BP can or will attempt to use the fund to offset their remediation costs, and how claimants will be compensated for ongoing economic disruption which may not be fully knowable today. Kennedy’s luncheon address was more forward looking — really focused on the opportunities to get the world off of its dependency on carbon-based fuel.
Naturally, my own talk was focused on the economic and valuation questions — both what we need to do and how we will go about doing those things. As I noted, much of our scope of work over the coming months won’t be knowable until the MDL panel reaches its conclusions, hopefully before the end of July. However, much can already be done, and needs to be accomplished aggressively before a judge is appointed so that in the initial meetings, the litigants will be able to show the judge that the valuation questions are actually answerable.
From a purely practical perspective, we came away from the conference realizing that we were probably the only firm of our kind in the country capable of taking on this project. Apparently, most of the attorneys in the room seemed to aggre with that assessment. We will keep you posted as this case progresses.
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and…. yet more on the Gulf Oil Spill
I gave a 30-minute talk yesterday in a conference-call setting to over 100 bankers and other folks in the lending industry (public policy types, regulators, etc.) sponsored by the Collateral Risk Network (CRN), a group which focuses on real estate in the bank lending setting. Thanks to our good friend, Joan Trice, the head of CRN, for getting us involved in this.
One of the CRN affiliates, FNC, is in the appraisal management business. Needless to say, the impact of the Gulf Oil Spill has an immediate and significant impact on they way they do business in the affected areas. They have established a web site with information about the crisis. Click here to access their site and blog directly,.
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Yet more on the Gulf Oil Spill
The promised white paper is still in the works — plan to finish it this weekend. Unfortunately, this project seems to be evolving in real time. Putting a “freeze frame” on it is problematic, but doable. We’ll unquestionably need to update this as the summer progresses.
Also, as many of you know, I’ve been s-l-o-w-l-y working on a book on Real Estate Litigation Valuation. It’s actually coming together a bit better now, and so I hope to have more info on that soon.
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More on BP Oil Spill
Just confirmed — I’ll be one of the speakers at the upcoming BP Oil Spill Conference in Atlanta (June 24/25). The conference is put together by HB Litigation Conferences, the successor group to Lexis/Nexis Mealey’s Conferences. I’ve spoken at their conferences before, and they do a great job (and without sounding too self-serving, they put together a great set of speakers). Other speakers will include both the plaintiff and defense bar in this case, and I’m scheduled to go on right before the luncheon key-note address by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
For more information about the conference, please visit HB Litigation Conference’s web site.
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the 11 day week
It’s been 11 days since my last post… long week, eh?
The litigation support portion of our business has been hogging my calendar most of this month. I’ve had 5 days of deposition in two different cases (plus cross-country travel, prep, etc.) in the past 11 days. Yes, that’s every bit as busy as it sounds. The month isn’t over — I have two more dep’s scheduled for May (both, thankfully, in Seattle) and then two the first week in June (both, thanks to the Gods of calendars, in New Orleans).
As if that wasn’t enough, the BP Oil Spill matter is on my calendar each and every day. We’re in daily communications with law firms in the Gulf states and elsewhere, and we’re working on a methodology white-paper for distribution later this month. There is a CLE conference scheduled for Atlanta in June — Greenfield will have some-sort of presence. More on that in the next couple of days. If you’d like a copy of the white paper when it’s published, please drop us a note at info@greenfieldadvisors.com
Of course, the real estate advisory and investment side of our business continues to be a busy place. Sigh… It’s nice to be busy.
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Newsletter, oil spill, and such…
Just sent out the April issue of The Greenfield Advisor. We cover quite a few things, but the front-page article is about the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Greenfield is already gearing up a file on this matter, and given our history in such situations, we can already see the salient issues which will need to be addressed. More on this later….
We also include info on recent meetings of the American Real Estate Society and the Real Estate Counseling Group of America, as well as our thoughts on the current state of the economy. Enjoy!
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RECGA
ALSO, I just got back yesterday from Las Vegas, attending the semi-annual meetings of the Real Estate Counseling Group of America. It was a terrifically well-attended meeting, organized by Dr. Jeff Fisher of U. Indiana. RECGA is something of a “think tank” on real estate valuation, formed about 40 years ago by the late Dr. Bill Kinard. Over the years, its membership has constituted a “who’s-who” of real estate appraisers, counselors, professors, and investment advisors. I’ll outlined the program and some of the more interesting highlights in the upcoming issue of The Greenfield Advisor. Drop us a not at Greenfield (info@greenfieldadvisors.com) if you’re interested in a copy.
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American Real Estate Society
I just finished participating in the 26th annual meetings of the American Real Estate Society, one of the world’s premier real estate academic groups. Participants are a mix of academics (both U.S. and global) as well as senior-level researchers from the private sector and the government.
There was a significant focus on valuation models — lots of discussion of where the appraisal industry and methodology are headed. I’ll elaborate more on this in the April issue of The Greenfield Advisor, our semi-monthly newsletter, which will come out later this month. If you’d like to be added to the subscription list, just contact info@greenfieldadvisors.com.
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Mortgage Fraud
I added a comment today to the “Mortgage Fraud” blog. I highly recommend reading — it’s eyeopening.
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Hospitality…. on the mend?
Following up on my previous post, Marcus & Millichap’s Hospitality report also hit my desk this week. They would posit that, “In fact, a recovery in the sector has already begun.” The projected nationwide occupancy of 51.6% in the 1st quarter topped 1Q-2009, but is still lower than the 57.7% 1st quarter average from 2005 – 2009. The primary drivers? Strengthening of the labor market and other key economic measures.
Hotel investments, however, are still waiting to mend. Sales of branded full-service hotels have declined 60% in the past 12 months, and sales of chain-affiliated, limited-service hotels are down 48%. The flight-to-quality which is evident in other sectors has yet to catch on in hospitality. Well capitalized buyers appear to be ready, but there is a gap between buyer and seller expectations. Room revenues continue to improve, but the physical condition of some assets (a result of deferred maintenance during the downturn) is problematic.
For more information, visit the Marcus and Millichap website.
From a small northwestern observatory... 