From a small northwestern observatory…

Finance and economics generally focused on real estate

Archive for August 2013

A quick note about maps

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My expertise (such that it is) lives in the universe of Finance and Economics, but I tend to specialize in the real estate arena. That means, I spend a lot of time looking at maps. (Somewhat ironically, my main hobbies — flying and boating — also require a lot of map work. Go figure….)

With that in mind, someone sent me a link to a great piece in the Washington Post called 40 Maps That Explain the World. Click on it yourself. The maps are somewhat interactive (you can expand them for detail, and there are cross-post to other articles and explanations). The maps are extremely thought-provoking, and some take a bit of time to fully comprehend.

If THAT wasn’t enough, apparently other writers are starting to compile their own “40 Maps” lists. One of the better ones, albeit somewhat more U.S. centric, comes from the website twistedsifter.com, and is called 40 Maps That Will Help You Make Sense of the World. Whether they do or not is still up in the air, but they do make for fun reading.

Written by johnkilpatrick

August 23, 2013 at 4:22 pm

Quarterly Econ Survey from Phily FED

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One of my favorite regular “reads” is the Survey of Professional Forecasters” from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank. The main survey comes out quarterly, with occasional special editions thrown in along the way. The brilliance of the survey is its simplicity — ask a large panel of economic forecasters where they think the economy is going in terms of a handful of key indicators — GDP, unemployment, inflation. Then calculate the median and the range of responses.

The medians are fairly predictable and “sticky” (that is, this quarter’s results look a lot like last quarter’s). However, the interesting stuff is buried in the way the distribution of results change. For example, both the last survey and the current survey find that the largest number of economists think unemployment will average between 7.0% and 7.4% next year (with a median of 7.1%), down somewhat from this year. That’s pretty predictable stuff. However, this year’s distribution is skewed to the low side (a very large number of economists think unemployment will dip this year and end up as low as 7% on average) but next year, the distribution is fairly even, with the bulk of economists forecasting anywhere from 6% to 8%. In short, 2014 is pretty cloudy right now, and that means that hedging your economic bets isn’t a bad idea.

GDP projections are somewhat less rosy. In the previous survey (2nd quarter, 2013), the largest number of economists projected 2013 GDP in the 2% to 3% range, with the median at 2%. Today, that has dropped a full half-percentage point, down to 1.5%. Previously, 2014 was projected at 2.8%, and that has now been downgraded to 2.6%, although as we’ve already established, 2014 is pretty much a guessing game.

Inflation continues to be pretty-much a flat line, with a lot of “1.8%” and “2.0%” on the chart. In short, hardly anyone sees inflation above 2.3% or so in the foreseeable future.

To download the full report, go to http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2013/survq313.cfm

Written by johnkilpatrick

August 16, 2013 at 8:53 am