Archive for the ‘Real Estate’ Category
Foul weather, foul moods
It’s fall. The time of year when Seattle’s absolutely beautiful summer turns into yechy autumn.
With all of that in mind, three yechy pieces of economic info hit my desk all at once today. First, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index hit a 7-month low of 48.5, which was not only lower than last month (53.2) but also much lower than economists consensus forecast (52.1). Why? The general public has internalized the notion that significant levels of unemployment will be with us for quite a while.
Then, the Business Roundtable released it’s 3rd quarter 2010 CEO survey. You’d think, with corporate profits on the rise, that this bunch would be breaking out the good champagne. But no, even though major corporations plan to increase capital spending over the next few months, they have lower expectations of both revenues and employment.
Finally, S&P Case Shiller, who normally send out quarterly reports, sent me a July update (dated September 28), which shows housing prices continue to be disappointing. While prices are, indeed, up from a year ago (by about 4%), the price index has been cycling below 2003 levels for over a year. Among major markets, the best year-on-year performance was in San Francisco (up 11.2%) while the worst was in Las Vegas (down 4.9%). Intriguingly, all of the California major markets are looking strongly up.
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Where have I been?
LOL… sometimes this blog feels like “what did I do on my summer vacation.”
Spent a big chunk of last week in Juneau, AK, riding a float plane out to Admiralty Island. Can’t talk about it very much (lots of confidentiality), but the scenery was beautiful. If you ever get to make a trip like that, do it. Kuddos to Ward Air a the Juneau Airport for a great trip on one of their Cessna 206’s.
On Saturday, the weather here in Seattle was absolutely perfect. I had the opportunity to ride on Carlyn, the 61-foot sailboat owned by Salish Expeditions. Salish runs a great program in the Fall and Spring, taking middle- and high-school students on 3- and 4-day hands-on research excursions. The kids are guided in formulating a “do-able” research project focused around marine biology and the environment. This is a terrific program, and we at Greenfield certainly want to support programs like this.
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My upcoming schedule
The next couple of months will be pretty busy, “speaking engagement” wise. Thought I’d keep you up-to-date on what’s in store.
This month, most of my travel is for business meetings, with only ONE presentation on tap — I’m a member of the Real Estate Counseling Group of America (and allegedly the Membership Chair, but I’m not quite sure yet what that means) and our semi-annual meetings are scheduled for D.C. the last weekend in September. I’ll speak in Friday morning on the Gulf Oil Crisis (naturally). Right now, I’m figuring out how to embed YouTube videos into a powerpoint presentation. Wish me luck.
On October 7, I’m back in the Pacific Northwest as the keynote speaker for the annual Brownfields Conference, sponsored by the Northwest Environmental Business Council.
We TENTATIVELY have a web-in-ar planned for October 29 on the Gulf Oil Spill. More on that later. If you want info (as soon as we have scheduling), please send us an e-mail at info@greenfieldadvisors.com and we’ll be sure to keep you up-to-date.
Finally (well, not FINALLY, but at least for this list…) I’m scheduled to be in Miami Beach on November 4 to speak on the Gulf Oil Crisis at the Ritz Carleton Miami Beach (Yeah — terrible job I have, right?). For more info on that conference, click here.
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wow!
I hate to brag (not really… but I needed to say that…)
I JUST got the word that my paper, “Appraisal Error Terms and Confidence Intervals” won the “Best Appraisal Paper” award at the 2010 American Real Estate Society conference. The award — which includes a non-trivial cash prize, as well — is sponsored by the Appraisal Institute.
Thanks to everyone here at Greenfield who contributed to this paper. I’ll soon post a copy to our web site.
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Two new videos
I’ll be the first to admit that I have a “face for radio”, but the good folks at LexisNexis posted a pair of videos of me from the big June “Gulf Oil Spill Litigation Conference” held in Atlanta:
Remediation after the oil spill
Bank losses after the oil spill
Enjoy!
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gulfspillvaluations.com
We’ve been hinting at this for weeks….
www.gulfspillvaluations.com is finally alive! This is our web-based solution to providing valuations for thousands of Gulf Coast homeowners who need documentation for their property value diminution claims resulting from the Gulf Oil Spill.
The “official” announcement hit today. CNBC had a great piece on it (click here for a link) and there are already several great pieces about it on the web.
I’ll keep you posted as this progresses.
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Collateral Risk Network
Great talk Wednesday at the Collateral Risk Network conference in DC. One-hundred or so in attendance, representing a great cross-section of stakeholders in mortgage collateral valuation, including some very senior folks from most of the Federal regulators. I spoke for an hour on the impacts of the Gulf Oil Spill on loan portfolios (current and future) in the affected region.
The news, by the way, isn’t very good. For starters, the property value losses are in the billions. While much of this will be compensable to the property owners, little is being done to the holders of the mortgages (banks, mostly). For example, assume a waterfront property in Louisiana valued at $500,000 before the oil spill. Today, it’s worth half that — $250,000. The property owner turns in a claim (which may be paid, or more likely at that level will need to be litigated). Even if the claim is paid, the property is still worth only $250,000. Now, what if before the spill event, the owner had taken out an 80% loan — $400,000. The bank is now sitting on a $400,000 loan collateralized by a $250,000 property.
In most circumstances, the property owners will continue to make payments, and the loans will be paid in full. However, if history tells us anything, a significant number of these loans will end up badly.
In the immediate, the lenders in the area are basically frozen. Anecdotal evidence coming in from the region indicates lenders are not lending, and even existing loan commitments are being cancelled. This has wide-ranging economic problems, not just for borrowers and lenders, but secondarily for a whole host of market participants (builders and brokers near the top of that list).
On that theme, I’m headed for Louisiana in a few days, with meeting scheduled on a variety of issues (some of them, oil spill related). As usual, I’ll keep you all posted.
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weekend update…
Do I need to pay royalties to SNL for using that title?
Anyway, I’m headed for D.C. (among other places) this week, speaking at the meetings of the Collateral Risk Network (Hamilton Crowne Plaza, 14th @ K Street) on Wednesday. CRN is principally made up of bank lending regulators, appraisal reviewers, and others in the real estate collateral business. The primary focus of this meeting is on new appraisal regulations coming out of the recent housing finance melt-down. As a secondary issue, I’ve been asked to speak on the Gulf Oil Spill and its impact on lending, property values, and appraisals in that region.
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It’s been a busy month!
Actually, busy with personal stuff. Three weddings so far this summer, and one more to go! Most significantly — my son and new daughter-in-law got married this month! Big public congratulations to Jonathan and Sarah!
But, back to business — it’s being called the “Unknown Oil Spill“, but a pipeline leak this week in Kalamazoo, MI, has already become the biggest oil leak in the history of the midwestern U.S. An estimated 840,000 gallons have spilled since Monday. The oil slick now stretches some 16 miles near Battle Creek, in a river that eventually flows into the great lakes. We’ll keep you posted, and I’d be very surprised if we’re not eventually involved in this.
In OTHER news, I was honored yesterday to be invited to be the keynote speaker for October’s Brownfields Conference, sponsored by the Northwest Environmental Business Council. The meetings are scheduled for October 7 & 8 in Tacoma, Washington. Afterwards, we’ll post the text of my talk on our web site.
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A couple of updates
Really three things…
First, we’re sending out a press release aimed to media outlets in the Gulf region (as well as to our clients and friends) announcing a new initiative re: the oil spill damages. Greenfield is “accumulating” a data base of every property in the affected portions of the 5-state region, including two data sets: a GIS/cartography set and a property characteristics set. This will, when completed, be the most thorough data base line for damage assessment available for this region.
Second, I’m addressing appraisers and bankers on Gulf Oil Spill issues in my first-ever “web-in-ar” sponsored by appraisalbuzz.com on July 14. I’ll let you know how this turns out!
Finally, the June issue of our newsletter, The Greenfield Advisor, is available for download as a .pdf. You can access it here.
From a small northwestern observatory... 
