From a small northwestern observatory…

Finance and economics generally focused on real estate

Archive for August 15th, 2018

WSJ Property Report

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Three things caught my eye in the Wall Street Journal’s Property Report this morning. The first two were a positive note about Home Depot — which is doing a land-office business — and a related note about the aging of American homes.  Let’s start with the second point first.

The National Association of Homebuilders reports that the median age of a home in America is now 37 years, up from 31 years just a decade ago.  Mathematically, that’s an extraordinary increase.  It basically means that very few new homes have entered the housing stock in the past 10 years, and almost no homes have been torn down or in some way converted to some other use.  That’s the point NAHB is trying to make.  Our aging housing stock is a drag on the economy.  People who might have been employed in higher wage construction jobs are now serving coffee at Starbucks.  This ultimately means that our flat-line inflation in America has, to at least some degree, been achieved on the backs of stagnating wages.

Of course, this means good things for home re-hab shops like Home Depot.  If you’re house is getting older, you have two choices.  You can sell it and buy a new one (making the NAHB happy) or you can buy a can of paint or some new kitchen cabinets at Home Depot.  (Full disclosure — the folks at my local Home Depot know me by name.)

As for the third point, while wage stagnation is decidedly affecting the middle class, there is no such problem in the luxury class.  Belmond Hotels, owners of some of the world’s premier hotels, are considering buy-out offers.  Financially, this suggests they think we may be at the top of a cycle, and it’s hard to imagine that they could wring any more profits out of their properties than they do already.  Ergo, it may be time for them to cash in, and rumor has it some sovereign wealth funds are offering top dollar.  (Full disclosure — Belmond owns the Charleston Place in Charleston, SC, where I spend every New Years.  It is one of my favorite hotels in the world.)

By the way, Belmond is one of those fascinating stories that underscores the globalization of commerce.  Belmond was actually founded with the acquisition of the Hotel Cipriani in Venice, Italy.  It owns the Orient Express, which is run out of its Paris Office.  Corporate offices are in London, and today owns properties in 22 countries, including the historic 21 Club in New York and the Copacabana in Rio.  The legal headquarters, however, are in Hamilton, Bermuda, and the stock trades on the NYSE.  Go figure….

Written by johnkilpatrick

August 15, 2018 at 8:34 am

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