From a small northwestern observatory…

The latest issue of the Conway-Pedersen Economic Forecaster just hit my desk today. It’s a “must read” for anyone doing business in the Pacific Northwest. Their lead article is titled “Are We There Yet” and asks if the recession is over.

Of course, “recession” is more than just a feeling, it’s defined by a set of numbers (technically, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth). However, as they so aptly put it, “At the end of a recession, when the economy is in flux, numbers can get squirrely.”

We concur. The Blue Chip Economic Indicators rofecast a positive GDP growth for the US of 3.1% this year. However, employment growth for the State of Washington — normally one of the economic leaders — is forecasted for a negative half percent. Ouch. (Actually, national employment is also forecasted at -0.5% this year, since employment growth and GDP growth are not linked at the waist.)

They conclude with the observation that, “While the recession may be over, there is much work to be done before the economy recoups its losses…Our projections indicate that Puget Sound employment will not return to its pre-recession level until the end of 2012.”

For more information, or to subscribe to their very valuable newsletter, visit their web site, www.conwaypedersen.com.