From a small northwestern observatory…

Finance and economics generally focused on real estate

Archive for July 2019

Fed signals?

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The FED is expected to reduce its benchmark rate by 1/4 point today.  Market observers note that this is the first cut since the onset of the 2008 recession, and only the 5th time in 25 years that the FED has reversed from increasing to decreasing rates.

effective fed funds rate

The general role of the FED is to calm the waters, so to speak, and anticipate inflation or recessions.  Indeed, the powerful cut in 2008 was in response to a market on the precipice of an epochal recession.  Note that the most previous cut was in 2001, and before that in 1998. The 2001 cut was in response to an inverted yield curve and an impending recession, while the 1998 cut was in response to a close-call on the yield curve.  There were a series of cuts beginning in 1989 that foreshadowed the 1991/92 recession.

In a perfect world, FED rate cuts would forestall a recession.  In practice, however, all they can really do is soften the blow.


Written by johnkilpatrick

July 31, 2019 at 10:02 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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